01394pam a2200229   4500001000500000005001700005008003900022010001600061020001500077082002100092100005000113245016900163260006400332300003300396504005100429505053200480650004201012650003101054650003801085700001801123700002301141746520181127183705.0890823s1990    enka     b    001 0 eng  a   89022404  a052136542200a361.6/1/01512201 aMorgan, M. Grangerq(Millett Granger),d1941-10aUncertainty :ba guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis /cM. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion ; with a chapter by Mitchell Small.  aCambridge ;aNew York :bCambridge University Press,c1990.  axii, 332 p. :bill. ;c24 m.  aIncludes bibliographical references and index.  aPreface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An  overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature  and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions  and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and  with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment;  8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The  graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a  software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and  complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you  know; Index.grt 0aPolicy sciencesxMathematical models. 0aRiskxMathematical models. 0aUncertaintyxMathematical models.1 aHenrion, Max.1 aSmall, Mitchell J.