01467pam a2200253 4500 7465 20181127183705.0 890823s1990 enka b 001 0 eng 89022404 0521365422 361.6/1/0151 20 Morgan, M. Granger (Millett Granger), 1941- Uncertainty : a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis / M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion ; with a chapter by Mitchell Small. Cambridge ; New York : Cambridge University Press, 1990. xii, 332 p. : ill. ; 24 m. Includes bibliographical references and index. Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index. Policy sciences Mathematical models. Risk Mathematical models. Uncertainty Mathematical models. Henrion, Max. Small, Mitchell J. 6381 6381 0 0 ddc 0 0 MAIN RTCLIB RTCLIB MAIN 11421 0 361.6 MOR 30012555 2018-11-27 00:00:00 2018-11-27 MAIN