a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis Morgan, M. Granger (Millett Granger) 1941- creator Henrion, Max. Small, Mitchell J. text bibliography enk Cambridge New York Cambridge University Press 1990 monographic eng

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xii, 332 p. : ill. ; 24 m. Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index. M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion ; with a chapter by Mitchell Small. Includes bibliographical references and index. Policy sciences Mathematical models Risk Mathematical models Uncertainty Mathematical models 361.6/1/0151 0521365422 89022404 890823 20181127183705.0 7465