000			01467pam a2200253 4500
001			7465
005			20181127183705.0
008			890823s1990 enka b 001 0 eng
010			_a 89022404
020			_a0521365422
082	0	0	_a361.6/1/0151 _220
100	1		_aMorgan, M. Granger _q(Millett Granger), _d1941-
245	1	0	_aUncertainty : _ba guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis / _cM. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion ; with a chapter by Mitchell Small.
260			_aCambridge ; _aNew York : _bCambridge University Press, _c1990.
300			_axii, 332 p. : _bill. ; _c24 m.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
505			_aPreface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index. _g _r _t
650		0	_aPolicy sciences _xMathematical models.
650		0	_aRisk _xMathematical models.
650		0	_aUncertainty _xMathematical models.
700	1		_aHenrion, Max.
700	1		_aSmall, Mitchell J.
999			_c6381 _d6381