Uncertainty :
Morgan, M. Granger 1941-
Uncertainty : a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis / M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion ; with a chapter by Mitchell Small. - Cambridge ; New York : Cambridge University Press, 1990. - xii, 332 p. : ill. ; 24 m.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index.
0521365422
89022404
Policy sciences--Mathematical models.
Risk--Mathematical models.
Uncertainty--Mathematical models.
361.6/1/0151
Uncertainty : a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis / M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion ; with a chapter by Mitchell Small. - Cambridge ; New York : Cambridge University Press, 1990. - xii, 332 p. : ill. ; 24 m.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index.
0521365422
89022404
Policy sciences--Mathematical models.
Risk--Mathematical models.
Uncertainty--Mathematical models.
361.6/1/0151